Are External Debts Sustainable in Türkiye? New Evidence From Ratio and Structural Break Unit Root Analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47613/reflektif.2026.286Keywords:
External Debt Sustainability, Debt Ratios, Unit Root AnalysisAbstract
As of the end of 2024, Türkiye’s gross external debt stock reached a historical peak of 515.5 billion USD, increasing the importance of assessing debt sustainability. This study examines the sustainability of external debt over the period 1993–2024 using debt ratios and unit root tests that account for structural breaks. The findings from the ratio analysis reveal that key indicators exceed the threshold levels set by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Unit root test results indicate that most external debt indicators do not exhibit long-term stability, suggesting a lack of sustainability. Only the export-based indicator (ED/EXP) shows limited evidence of stability. Overall, the results point to a fragile external debt structure with weak sustainability conditions. Accordingly, it is suggested that borrowing policies should be implemented more cautiously, particularly within the framework of fiscal discipline and prudent expenditure management.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Yusuf Yakşi- Bayram Kayantaş
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