Turkey’s New Presidential Regime: Fragility, Resilience, Reversibility

Abstract

Turkey’s forthcoming general election of June 2023 is likely to prove a crucial turning point in the country’s political trajectory. Depending on the outcome of the election, Turkey may find itself on the path of democratic renewal or further consolidation or deepening of the existing competitive authoritarian regime. The paper presents a critical account of the last four years under the new presidential regime and tries to locate the Turkish experience in the broader debate on varieties of right-wing populism. A central hypothesis is that the ongoing economic crisis has, to a certain extent, undermined the popularity of the AKP and the governing coalition. At the same, we should not underestimate the resilience of the ruling coalition in the face of continued economic growth and the importance of additional dynamics such as the role of identity politics and domestic politics-foreign policy interactions.